Odds

Exact lottery odds: chances of winning and number of combinations

What are the odds that one grid wins each prize tier? The answer depends on no draw history and no method: only on the game’s rules. Here are the exact odds of the eight games analysed by Visionary Stats Pro, tier by tier.

How these odds are calculated

A draw picks its numbers at random, without replacement. The probability of matching exactly k of the n numbers on a grid, when t numbers are drawn from N, is the number of ways to choose k numbers among the t drawn and the others among the N − t not drawn, divided by the total number of grids: C(t, k) × C(N − t, n − k) / C(N, n).

When a game also draws one or more special numbers (stars, Lucky Number, Dream, Powerball, Mega Ball) from a separate drum, the two draws are independent: their probabilities multiply.

Each value is computed from the rules in force and checked by a second, independent calculation, in exact integer arithmetic. “1 in 22.1” means that on average one grid in 22.1 gets this result: it is never a promise about the next draw.

The eight games compared

GameRuleCombinationsTop prize tierAny prizeBase stake
EuroMillions5/50 + 2/12139,838,1601 in 139,838,160≈ 1 in 12.97€2.50
Loto5/49 + 1/1019,068,8401 in 19,068,840≈ 1 in 5.99€2.20
EuroDreams6/40 + 1/519,191,9001 in 19,191,900≈ 1 in 4.66€2.50
Powerball5/69 + 1/26292,201,3381 in 292,201,338≈ 1 in 24.87$2.00
Keno 5616/56 · pick 4–10367,290 to 35,607,051,4801 in 4,446,435≈ 1 in 7.78€1.00
Crescendo10/253,268,7601 in 3,268,760≈ 1 in 9.44€1.00
Amigodraw 12/28 · play 7 numbers1,184,0401 in 1,184,040≈ 1 in 3.05€2.00
Mega Millions5/70 + 1/24290,472,3361 in 290,472,336≈ 1 in 23.07$5.00

Keno, Amigo and Crescendo read differently: you play fewer numbers than are drawn (Keno, Amigo) or the letter adds a tier (Crescendo). Their top tier is shown for the most common grid.

EuroMillions odds

Correct numbersOdds
5 numbers + 2 stars1 in 139,838,160
5 numbers + 1 star1 in 6,991,908
5 numbers + no stars≈ 1 in 3,107,515
4 numbers + 2 stars≈ 1 in 621,503
4 numbers + 1 star≈ 1 in 31,075
3 numbers + 2 stars≈ 1 in 14,125
4 numbers + no stars≈ 1 in 13,811
2 numbers + 2 stars≈ 1 in 985.47
3 numbers + 1 star≈ 1 in 706.25
3 numbers + no stars≈ 1 in 313.89
1 number + 2 stars≈ 1 in 187.71
2 numbers + 1 star≈ 1 in 49.27
2 numbers + no stars≈ 1 in 21.90
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 12.97

Loto odds

Correct numbersOdds
5 numbers + the Lucky Number1 in 19,068,840
5 numbers + without the Lucky Number1 in 2,118,760
4 numbers + the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 86,677
4 numbers + without the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 9,631
3 numbers + the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 2,016
3 numbers + without the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 223.97
2 numbers + the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 143.98
2 numbers + without the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 16.00
1 number or fewer + the Lucky Number≈ 1 in 10.81
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 5.99

EuroDreams odds

Correct numbersOdds
6 numbers + the Dream number1 in 19,191,900
6 numbers + without the Dream number1 in 4,797,975
5 numbers≈ 1 in 18,816
4 numbers≈ 1 in 456.14
3 numbers≈ 1 in 32.07
2 numbers≈ 1 in 5.52
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 4.66

From five correct numbers upwards, the Dream number no longer changes the tier: only the top two tiers depend on it.

Powerball odds

Correct numbersOdds
5 numbers + the Powerball1 in 292,201,338
5 numbers + without the Powerball≈ 1 in 11,688,054
4 numbers + the Powerball≈ 1 in 913,129
4 numbers + without the Powerball≈ 1 in 36,525
3 numbers + the Powerball≈ 1 in 14,494
3 numbers + without the Powerball≈ 1 in 579.76
2 numbers + the Powerball≈ 1 in 701.33
1 number + the Powerball≈ 1 in 91.98
no numbers + the Powerball≈ 1 in 38.32
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 24.87

Keno 56 odds

10-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
10 numbers1 in 4,446,435
9 numbers≈ 1 in 77,813
8 numbers≈ 1 in 3,547
7 numbers≈ 1 in 315.03
6 numbers≈ 1 in 48.65
5 numbers≈ 1 in 12.39
no numbers≈ 1 in 42.01
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 7.78

9-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
9 numbers1 in 662,235
8 numbers≈ 1 in 14,716
7 numbers≈ 1 in 849.02
6 numbers≈ 1 in 95.75
5 numbers≈ 1 in 18.98
4 numbers≈ 1 in 6.33
no numbers≈ 1 in 27.71
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 3.87

8-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
8 numbers≈ 1 in 110,373
7 numbers≈ 1 in 3,104
6 numbers≈ 1 in 227.42
5 numbers≈ 1 in 32.92
no numbers≈ 1 in 18.47
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 11.20

7-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
7 numbers≈ 1 in 20,273
6 numbers≈ 1 in 724.02
5 numbers≈ 1 in 68.07
4 numbers≈ 1 in 12.90
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 10.68

6-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
6 numbers≈ 1 in 4,055
5 numbers≈ 1 in 185.83
4 numbers≈ 1 in 22.87
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 20.26

5-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
5 numbers≈ 1 in 874.50
4 numbers≈ 1 in 52.47
3 numbers≈ 1 in 8.75
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 7.43

4-number grid

Correct numbersOdds
4 numbers≈ 1 in 201.81
3 numbers≈ 1 in 16.40
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 15.16

Only the combinations rewarded by the official Keno prize table are listed, including “0 correct numbers” for 8, 9 and 10 numbers played.

Crescendo odds

Correct numbersOdds
10 numbers1 in 3,268,760
9 numbers≈ 1 in 21,792
8 numbers≈ 1 in 691.80
7 numbers≈ 1 in 59.87
6 numbers≈ 1 in 11.40
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 9.44

The letter, assigned at random with each entry, adds a prize tier when it matches the drawn letter; its probability depends on the number of letters set by the game rules and is not shown here.

Amigo odds

Correct numbersOdds
7 blue + 0 yellow1 in 1,184,040
6 blue + 1 yellow≈ 1 in 33,830
5 blue + 2 yellow≈ 1 in 5,638
4 blue + 3 yellow≈ 1 in 3,383
3 blue + 4 yellow≈ 1 in 6,766
2 blue + 5 yellow≈ 1 in 56,383
6 blue + 0 yellow≈ 1 in 10,572
5 blue + 1 yellow≈ 1 in 704.79
4 blue + 2 yellow≈ 1 in 211.44
3 blue + 3 yellow≈ 1 in 211.44
2 blue + 4 yellow≈ 1 in 704.79
1 blue + 5 yellow≈ 1 in 10,572
5 blue + 0 yellow≈ 1 in 469.86
4 blue + 1 yellow≈ 1 in 56.38
3 blue + 2 yellow≈ 1 in 28.19
2 blue + 3 yellow≈ 1 in 46.99
1 blue + 4 yellow≈ 1 in 281.91
0 blue + 5 yellow1 in 9,867
4 blue + 0 yellow≈ 1 in 60.41
3 blue + 1 yellow≈ 1 in 12.08
2 blue + 2 yellow≈ 1 in 10.07
1 blue + 3 yellow≈ 1 in 30.21
0 blue + 4 yellow≈ 1 in 422.87
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 3.05

The first seven numbers drawn are blue, the next five yellow: the official Amigo table rewards a seven-number grid according to how many correct numbers of each colour it has.

Mega Millions odds

Correct numbersOdds
5 numbers + the Mega Ball1 in 290,472,336
5 numbers + without the Mega Ball1 in 12,629,232
4 numbers + the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 893,761
4 numbers + without the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 38,859
3 numbers + the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 13,965
3 numbers + without the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 607.17
2 numbers + the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 665.00
1 number + the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 85.81
no numbers + the Mega Ball≈ 1 in 35.17
Any prize tier≈ 1 in 23.07

Several grids: what really changes

Playing several different grids adds up their chances of the top tier exactly: ten distinct EuroMillions grids give ten chances in 139,838,160. Each grid keeps its own probability; none becomes more likely.

  • 1 grid: 1 in 139,838,160
  • 10 grids: 1 in 13,983,816
  • 100 grids: ≈ 1 in 1,398,382

10 distinct grids: 1 in 13,983,816 for the top tier.

Further reading

Responsible gaming

Gambling can lead to financial losses, family conflict, addiction or loss of control.

Visionary Stats Pro encourages a set budget, self-imposed limits and careful, informed and responsible play.

Draws remain random: no guaranteed prediction, no promise of winnings.

Help and information: in the United States, 1-800-MY-RESET (National Council on Problem Gambling, 24/7); in the United Kingdom, GamCare 0808 8020 133 (free, 24/7); in France, Joueurs Info Service 09 74 75 13 13. More on the responsible gaming page.

Independence

Visionary Stats Pro is independent of all lottery and gaming operators.

Game and operator names are used only to identify the games concerned.