Odds
Exact lottery odds: chances of winning and number of combinations
What are the odds that one grid wins each prize tier? The answer depends on no draw history and no method: only on the game’s rules. Here are the exact odds of the eight games analysed by Visionary Stats Pro, tier by tier.
How these odds are calculated
A draw picks its numbers at random, without replacement. The probability of matching exactly k of the n numbers on a grid, when t numbers are drawn from N, is the number of ways to choose k numbers among the t drawn and the others among the N − t not drawn, divided by the total number of grids: C(t, k) × C(N − t, n − k) / C(N, n).
When a game also draws one or more special numbers (stars, Lucky Number, Dream, Powerball, Mega Ball) from a separate drum, the two draws are independent: their probabilities multiply.
Each value is computed from the rules in force and checked by a second, independent calculation, in exact integer arithmetic. “1 in 22.1” means that on average one grid in 22.1 gets this result: it is never a promise about the next draw.
The eight games compared
| Game | Rule | Combinations | Top prize tier | Any prize | Base stake |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EuroMillions | 5/50 + 2/12 | 139,838,160 | 1 in 139,838,160 | ≈ 1 in 12.97 | €2.50 |
| Loto | 5/49 + 1/10 | 19,068,840 | 1 in 19,068,840 | ≈ 1 in 5.99 | €2.20 |
| EuroDreams | 6/40 + 1/5 | 19,191,900 | 1 in 19,191,900 | ≈ 1 in 4.66 | €2.50 |
| Powerball | 5/69 + 1/26 | 292,201,338 | 1 in 292,201,338 | ≈ 1 in 24.87 | $2.00 |
| Keno 56 | 16/56 · pick 4–10 | 367,290 to 35,607,051,480 | 1 in 4,446,435 | ≈ 1 in 7.78 | €1.00 |
| Crescendo | 10/25 | 3,268,760 | 1 in 3,268,760 | ≈ 1 in 9.44 | €1.00 |
| Amigo | draw 12/28 · play 7 numbers | 1,184,040 | 1 in 1,184,040 | ≈ 1 in 3.05 | €2.00 |
| Mega Millions | 5/70 + 1/24 | 290,472,336 | 1 in 290,472,336 | ≈ 1 in 23.07 | $5.00 |
Keno, Amigo and Crescendo read differently: you play fewer numbers than are drawn (Keno, Amigo) or the letter adds a tier (Crescendo). Their top tier is shown for the most common grid.
EuroMillions odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 5 numbers + 2 stars | 1 in 139,838,160 |
| 5 numbers + 1 star | 1 in 6,991,908 |
| 5 numbers + no stars | ≈ 1 in 3,107,515 |
| 4 numbers + 2 stars | ≈ 1 in 621,503 |
| 4 numbers + 1 star | ≈ 1 in 31,075 |
| 3 numbers + 2 stars | ≈ 1 in 14,125 |
| 4 numbers + no stars | ≈ 1 in 13,811 |
| 2 numbers + 2 stars | ≈ 1 in 985.47 |
| 3 numbers + 1 star | ≈ 1 in 706.25 |
| 3 numbers + no stars | ≈ 1 in 313.89 |
| 1 number + 2 stars | ≈ 1 in 187.71 |
| 2 numbers + 1 star | ≈ 1 in 49.27 |
| 2 numbers + no stars | ≈ 1 in 21.90 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 12.97 |
Loto odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 5 numbers + the Lucky Number | 1 in 19,068,840 |
| 5 numbers + without the Lucky Number | 1 in 2,118,760 |
| 4 numbers + the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 86,677 |
| 4 numbers + without the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 9,631 |
| 3 numbers + the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 2,016 |
| 3 numbers + without the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 223.97 |
| 2 numbers + the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 143.98 |
| 2 numbers + without the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 16.00 |
| 1 number or fewer + the Lucky Number | ≈ 1 in 10.81 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 5.99 |
EuroDreams odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 6 numbers + the Dream number | 1 in 19,191,900 |
| 6 numbers + without the Dream number | 1 in 4,797,975 |
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 18,816 |
| 4 numbers | ≈ 1 in 456.14 |
| 3 numbers | ≈ 1 in 32.07 |
| 2 numbers | ≈ 1 in 5.52 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 4.66 |
From five correct numbers upwards, the Dream number no longer changes the tier: only the top two tiers depend on it.
Powerball odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 5 numbers + the Powerball | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| 5 numbers + without the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 11,688,054 |
| 4 numbers + the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 913,129 |
| 4 numbers + without the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 36,525 |
| 3 numbers + the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 14,494 |
| 3 numbers + without the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 579.76 |
| 2 numbers + the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 701.33 |
| 1 number + the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 91.98 |
| no numbers + the Powerball | ≈ 1 in 38.32 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 24.87 |
Keno 56 odds
10-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 10 numbers | 1 in 4,446,435 |
| 9 numbers | ≈ 1 in 77,813 |
| 8 numbers | ≈ 1 in 3,547 |
| 7 numbers | ≈ 1 in 315.03 |
| 6 numbers | ≈ 1 in 48.65 |
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 12.39 |
| no numbers | ≈ 1 in 42.01 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 7.78 |
9-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 9 numbers | 1 in 662,235 |
| 8 numbers | ≈ 1 in 14,716 |
| 7 numbers | ≈ 1 in 849.02 |
| 6 numbers | ≈ 1 in 95.75 |
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 18.98 |
| 4 numbers | ≈ 1 in 6.33 |
| no numbers | ≈ 1 in 27.71 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 3.87 |
8-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 8 numbers | ≈ 1 in 110,373 |
| 7 numbers | ≈ 1 in 3,104 |
| 6 numbers | ≈ 1 in 227.42 |
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 32.92 |
| no numbers | ≈ 1 in 18.47 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 11.20 |
7-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 7 numbers | ≈ 1 in 20,273 |
| 6 numbers | ≈ 1 in 724.02 |
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 68.07 |
| 4 numbers | ≈ 1 in 12.90 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 10.68 |
6-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 6 numbers | ≈ 1 in 4,055 |
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 185.83 |
| 4 numbers | ≈ 1 in 22.87 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 20.26 |
5-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 5 numbers | ≈ 1 in 874.50 |
| 4 numbers | ≈ 1 in 52.47 |
| 3 numbers | ≈ 1 in 8.75 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 7.43 |
4-number grid
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 4 numbers | ≈ 1 in 201.81 |
| 3 numbers | ≈ 1 in 16.40 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 15.16 |
Only the combinations rewarded by the official Keno prize table are listed, including “0 correct numbers” for 8, 9 and 10 numbers played.
Crescendo odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 10 numbers | 1 in 3,268,760 |
| 9 numbers | ≈ 1 in 21,792 |
| 8 numbers | ≈ 1 in 691.80 |
| 7 numbers | ≈ 1 in 59.87 |
| 6 numbers | ≈ 1 in 11.40 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 9.44 |
The letter, assigned at random with each entry, adds a prize tier when it matches the drawn letter; its probability depends on the number of letters set by the game rules and is not shown here.
Amigo odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 7 blue + 0 yellow | 1 in 1,184,040 |
| 6 blue + 1 yellow | ≈ 1 in 33,830 |
| 5 blue + 2 yellow | ≈ 1 in 5,638 |
| 4 blue + 3 yellow | ≈ 1 in 3,383 |
| 3 blue + 4 yellow | ≈ 1 in 6,766 |
| 2 blue + 5 yellow | ≈ 1 in 56,383 |
| 6 blue + 0 yellow | ≈ 1 in 10,572 |
| 5 blue + 1 yellow | ≈ 1 in 704.79 |
| 4 blue + 2 yellow | ≈ 1 in 211.44 |
| 3 blue + 3 yellow | ≈ 1 in 211.44 |
| 2 blue + 4 yellow | ≈ 1 in 704.79 |
| 1 blue + 5 yellow | ≈ 1 in 10,572 |
| 5 blue + 0 yellow | ≈ 1 in 469.86 |
| 4 blue + 1 yellow | ≈ 1 in 56.38 |
| 3 blue + 2 yellow | ≈ 1 in 28.19 |
| 2 blue + 3 yellow | ≈ 1 in 46.99 |
| 1 blue + 4 yellow | ≈ 1 in 281.91 |
| 0 blue + 5 yellow | 1 in 9,867 |
| 4 blue + 0 yellow | ≈ 1 in 60.41 |
| 3 blue + 1 yellow | ≈ 1 in 12.08 |
| 2 blue + 2 yellow | ≈ 1 in 10.07 |
| 1 blue + 3 yellow | ≈ 1 in 30.21 |
| 0 blue + 4 yellow | ≈ 1 in 422.87 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 3.05 |
The first seven numbers drawn are blue, the next five yellow: the official Amigo table rewards a seven-number grid according to how many correct numbers of each colour it has.
Mega Millions odds
| Correct numbers | Odds |
|---|---|
| 5 numbers + the Mega Ball | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| 5 numbers + without the Mega Ball | 1 in 12,629,232 |
| 4 numbers + the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 893,761 |
| 4 numbers + without the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 38,859 |
| 3 numbers + the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 13,965 |
| 3 numbers + without the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 607.17 |
| 2 numbers + the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 665.00 |
| 1 number + the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 85.81 |
| no numbers + the Mega Ball | ≈ 1 in 35.17 |
| Any prize tier | ≈ 1 in 23.07 |
Several grids: what really changes
Playing several different grids adds up their chances of the top tier exactly: ten distinct EuroMillions grids give ten chances in 139,838,160. Each grid keeps its own probability; none becomes more likely.
- 1 grid: 1 in 139,838,160
- 10 grids: 1 in 13,983,816
- 100 grids: ≈ 1 in 1,398,382
10 distinct grids: 1 in 13,983,816 for the top tier.
Further reading
- Lottery wheeling — covering a pool with fewer grids, and what a coverage really guarantees.
- Statistics and chance — frequencies, gaps, “overdue” numbers: what a statistic describes.
- The eight games — rules, schedule and features, game by game.
Responsible gaming
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Draws remain random: no guaranteed prediction, no promise of winnings.
Help and information: in the United States, 1-800-MY-RESET (National Council on Problem Gambling, 24/7); in the United Kingdom, GamCare 0808 8020 133 (free, 24/7); in France, Joueurs Info Service 09 74 75 13 13. More on the responsible gaming page.
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Game and operator names are used only to identify the games concerned.